When the U.S. stock market is expensive, diversifying your portfolio away from that asset class becomes even more important, either to reduce risk and/or to supplement future returns. Here are some possible moves to consider:
About a year ago I wrote an article in this space entitled "Retirement Risks Are Mounting". This conclusion was based on the triple threat to retirees - and those close to retirement - of low bond yields, lofty stock market valuations, and rising inflation.
Several recent surveys indicate that inflation has now overtaken the pandemic as the primary concern among investors and retirees. Allianz's 2020 Retirement Risk Readiness Study concluded that 57% of Americans are worried that inflation will make basic retirement expenses unaffordable. If in fact inflation does re-emerge after decades of benign behavior, it will be particularly damaging for those close to, or in, retirement.
It's sometimes said that sound portfolio management is simple, but not easy. In other words, the concepts behind successful portfolio management are reasonably easy to grasp in theory, but are counterintuitive and emotionally difficult to implement consistently in practice.
Buyers often seem unaware of the shortcomings of annuities until well after their purchase. Equity-indexed annuities are no exception to this statement. While the downside protection they offer is not at issue here (but is subject to the claims-paying ability of the insurance company involved), the upside potential of these products is often vastly exaggerated (or misunderstood) by salespeople motivated by nothing more than the prospect of sales commissions averaging about 6% of the amount invested.
"Advisor Background Checks a Must, Warn Regulators." "SEC Urges Consumers to Run Background Checks on Advisors." These were recent headlines in Financial Advisor magazine and the by-product of a campaign by the SEC and by other regulators of financial advisors to raise public awareness of the BrokerCheck tool. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) manages the BrokerCheck website, and this online database allows consumers to investigate their current or prospective advisors, and the firms that employ them.
Credit unions are a big part of the financial services landscape here in Utah, much more so than in other states. I use a credit union for both my personal and Five Seasons Financial Planning bank accounts, something I never even considered when living in the Northeast. And many clients also use them for banking and loans. But apparently the investment services and financial advice being offered by credit unions here in Utah are not necessarily what they seem.
“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” This statement must seem like a paradox when your portfolio balance is declining at an alarming rate on a weekly basis. But "money is indeed made" in a variety of ways during financial market upheavals like this one. And doing so doesn't require any particular market-timing skills or short-selling prowess, but it does require a disciplined and consistent approach to portfolio management, a focus on the longer term, and a certain amount of courage and conviction.
At the risk of overdoing it with client communications, I'm feeling that developments in the financial markets in the past week warrant another outreach to all of you, and in particular to those of you who weren't Five Seasons clients during the October 2007 - March 2009 bear market. In the interest of brevity, this missive will take the form of a list of talking points that have occurred to me, or that have cropped up in one-on-one correspondence with clients, this week. Here's hoping the following will calm nerves, provide perspective, satisfy curiosity, or simply help you to pass time while "social distancing":
Despite the confidence exuded by the talking heads on financial news networks like CNBC and Bloomberg TV, it's always a tenuous business to try to assign big stock market moves (down or up) to one specific root cause. And frankly it's not a particularly productive exercise to try to do so, other than for the benefit of TV ratings. That being said, in my humble opinion, while the coronavirus was certainly the catalyst for, and is still an ongoing contributing factor to, this stock market correction or bear market, there are several other factors at work: